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The Need for a Central Bank Digital Currency

Central Bank Digital Currencys (CBDC) are becoming a hot topic in the market. Although CBDCs still face multiple issues such as the eroding the function of financial intermediaries and countermeasures against cyberattacks, central banks need to secure currency sovereignty through the issuance of CBDC in order to ensure the effectiveness of monetary policy.
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Market Review for February 2021

TOPIX ended up 3.08% on the previous month-end. The expectations for a recovery of company’s earnings and US additional economic stimulus pushed the market higher. The market lost the momentum in the latter half of the month due to the decline of the US equity market following a sharp hike in US bond yield but closed higher than the previous month-end.

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Carbon Neutrality in Japan

As the world makes its efforts towards carbon neutrality, Japan also announced its "Green Growth Strategy" in December 2020. In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the Japanese government will set up a 2 trillion yen fund to encourage companies to invest in the environment, and will raise the ratio of renewable energy to 50- 60% by 2050 (It was 18% in 2019.)
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Market Review for January 2021

TOPIX ended up 0.23% on the previous month-end. In the first half of the month the Japanese equity market rallied on news that the Democrats had won majority control of Congress, and with this the expectations for additional US stimulus pushed the market higher. However, market sentiment was dampened by the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Japan and turmoil in the US equity market around the GameStop share surge caused by retail investors at the end of the month. As a result, the market closed almost flat.

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Corporate Reforms under COVID-19

Business performance of Japanese companies is clearly bottoming out due to self-reliant reforms implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic as the economy gradually picks up. Earnings and share prices had been affected by the sensitivity of their business structure to COVID-19, but going forward, performance will depend on their efforts to proactively make changes.
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Market Review for December 2020

The Japanese equity market for December rose and TOPIX ended up higher at 2.84%. The market favoured the news that US president Trump had signed the unemployment benefits package in the latter half of the month whilst the market struggled to find a direction between vaccine distribution and concerns over domestic economic activities evoked by the rise of the number of Covid-19 cases in Japan.

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The Endgame Outlook for the Japanese Market in 2021

This month's commentary covers the following as move towards year end 1) Asian countries will lead the global economic recovery. 2) The Japanese economy will recover supported by rebound of consumption 3) The BOJ’s accommodative policy as well as expansionary fiscal policy will continue. 4) We will see the Nikkei 225 testing 29,000 by end-2021
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The Digitalization of Japan

Japan faces enormous challenges with its declining and aging population. In order to improve economic efficiency and raise the potential growth rate, it must promote digitalization through innovation. While digitalization is the pillar of “Suganomics”, in the short term, the government has to develop infrastructure towards a digital society.
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The Suga Administration and the Desired “4th Arrow”

Prime Minister Suga’s near term policies will focus on tackling COVID-19, but his basic policies will follow where Abe left off. However, Suga faces numerous challenges that include income disparity and distribution policy. Suga’s economic policies must not counterpose his growth strategy with his income and distribution policy. Rather we would expect his income and distribution policy to reinforce his growth strategy. We hope to see the Suga Administration fully support and enforce these policies under the “4th Arrow”.